Desicritics Author: Rahul Bhonsle

Bhutan's Slow Transition to Democracy

Rahul Bhonsle — Sat, 7 Jul 2007 09:26:49 EDT

Addressing the inaugural meeting of the 87th session of the National Assembly on 7 June, the King of Bhutan said that the historic transition of the country to democracy is something all Bhutanese must take great pride in. The King reminded the Assembly members that this generation in Bhutan's history carried the sacred duty of ensuring the success of the democratic transition and every person must play his or her part in the coming elections. He encouraged all those who had the skills, experience and desire to serve the country as politicians, to come forward. With the start of the political process, Bhutan's 20 dzongkhags and 205 gewogs would be divided into 47 constituencies with many political parties and candidates. But the election process is facing problems driven by lack of adequate awareness of the democratic processes in the people. Thus very few people are reported to have declared their intention to contest in the 2008 elections. As of 15 June, only 13 candidates had planned to contest for the National Council and so far it is largely one candidate a dzongkhag. The National Council will compose of 20 directly elected members and 5 eminent persons appointed by the Druk Gyalpo. For the National Assembly elections, only a dozen possible candidates have declared their interests. Four political parties have been confirmed to run for the elections in 2008, but none of the party has finalized their candidates. Each party would have to look for 47 candidates for the 47 constituencies to the Assembly. As a corollary five serving cabinet ministers are "seriously contemplating" on joining politics but have not identified which party to join, according to the trade and industry minister, Lyonpo Yeshey Zimba. "We have not promised our assurance to any party," said the minister after the Assembly session. This is the mountain kingdoms first elections and there would be a number of candidates who are likely to be elected unopposed. This is the general trend in emerging democracies, when people are not fully aware of the advantages and power of an elected public office. Thus lack of response of candidates to come forward to participate in the elections should not be a major concern. On the flip side is the perceived rise of Communists as media reports indicated ongoing investigations of 13 people who had joined the Communist Party of Bhutan (Marxist-Leninist-Maoist) based in Jhapa, Nepal, by the Royal Bhutan Police in Samtse revealed that they were involved in several subversive activities to start an armed rebellion against the government. Detonators and other materials used for making improvised explosive devices were recovered from the group that the Samtse police apprehended on May 25. The Communist party of Bhutan is alleged to be closely associated with the Maoist Party of Nepal . The Bhutan Tiger Force, which is the militant wing of the Communist Party of Bhutan, was allegedly responsible for planting several explosive devices in Phuentsholing town. Police said that the 13 people would be charged under the Bhutan Penal Code and the National Security Act as per Phuntso Wangdi's report in Kuensel Online. Bhutan has been wary of the activities of communist party cadres which are said to be in league with the Maoists in Nepal. As this is the only direct threat to monarchy in the country, the police are extremely sensitive to any political activity which has a communist overtone and is known to come down with a heavy hand.On the whole however, the enlightened approach of the Bhutanese monarchy to democracy is to be lauded. This will set the course for democratisation of the country smoothly. However the attitude of the government towards minority Nepalis who have been evicted from the country is a matter of concern. At present they are refugees with no government ready to accept them and the offer by the US to absorb has been rejected by the community which feels that it is discriminatory.

The Politics of Demilitarization in Kashmir

Rahul Bhonsle — Sat, 7 Apr 2007 00:33:16 EDT

The demilitarisation debate in Kashmir appears to be more about politicisation and less about seeing the last of the Armed forces in the Valley. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh picked up the gauntlet and demonstrated deeper understanding of the politics in Kashmir than most observers credited him.

The Central Government announced a two level panel for review of troop deployment in Jammu and Kashmir. An expert panel under the Defence Secretary Mr Shekhar Dutt will review troop deployment and consider relocation and reconfiguration of the armed forces. Another specialist committee would review application of Armed Forces Special Powers Act.

Overseeing these would be the high powered committee headed by the Defence Minister Mr A K Anthony which will comprise of representatives from the Central and state governments which will take the final decision.

The formation of these multiple panels along with measures taken to vacate properties by the army assuaged the PDP and provided it some handle in state polity which was the intent with which it had launched an agitation threatening to quit the government. The crisis was defused after hectic negotiations between the Prime Minister, Mr Manmohan Singh, and the Chairperson of the UPA Mrs Sonia Gandhi and principal leaders of the PDP, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed and his daughter Mehbooba Mufti.

The underlying reasons for the PDP raising the ante of demilitarization are in the internal politics of Kashmir. The PDP is probably finding itself in a quandary being in the government but not being able to reap full benefits of power. Thus it has been continuously boycotting meetings of the state cabinet.

The problems are also of coordination as Ghulam Nabi Azad is reported to have limited consultations with the coalition partner on critical issues such as creation of new districts and also asked for scrutiny of files of transfers ordered by PDP ministers. The aim of a coalition government should be to take forward the Common Minimum Programme in a balanced manner rather than being involved in mud slinging.

The stand off over demilitarisation was given a new angle with a Hindustan Times Report indicating that the Army had already agreed to pull out from schools, tourist huts and orchards as well derequisition land from areas which were required by the government or the public for support of tourism as early as 22 February. The PDP was making much of the issue even threatening to pull out of the coalition.

Claims of occupation of over 1 Lakh kanal of land by the Army were not supported documentarily. Government figures indicated occupation of 11,609 kanals land and 11 marlas orchards since 1990 with yearly rent being paid for another 4000 kanal and 16 marlas.

The Chief Minister on the other hand provided details of premises vacated by security forces to include 9 orchards, 92 private houses, 24 hotels and 27 government buildings during the past one and a half years. These figures make it obvious that the PDP has seized the issue purely to make political mileage.

The demand for vacation of land however needs to be welcomed as a sign of return of normalcy to the Valley. Army units have been staying in these areas as during the period of militancy they were unoccupied and in many cases required protection. With return of normalcy, tourism is expected to open up in a major way and demands for vacation intensified. During the past few years there were also demands for vacation of hotels and other private buildings occupied by the police as tourism picked up.

The PDP has been attempting to capitalize on this public sentiment to ensure that it continues to remain relevant in the politics in the Valley. The battle for political consequence in the Valley was effectively joined with the National Conference returning to the meetings of the Prime Minister's working groups after it had withdrawn from the same five months back. The tempo of political activity has thus increased.

While there was some consternation in the Army over politicisation of the issue which is unavoidable, over reaction in media is unlikely to serve its interests. As peace comes about in the Valley, the security forces are likely to be increasingly side lined. Though the moment is not anywhere near, as and when it comes, a graceful exit may be in order.

Need for Greater Vigilance

The demilitarization debate does not denote that Jammu and Kashmir is likely to be devoid of terrorist violence in the months ahead. The number of incidents may reduce given that the terrorist strength has gone down. However there is greater need for vigilance by security forces as the incidents will be much more heinous, will involve minorities and selected political leaders who have been boldly resisting militancy in the past.

The need for the security forces is thus to keep the guard up throughout the summers rather than being carried away by the debate over demilitarization. For while the political heads fight it out, we cannot afford to lose any more innocent lives in Kashmir to the bullets on either side.

Perils of the New Maoists Strategy

Rahul Bhonsle — Fri, 6 Apr 2007 06:05:59 EDT

The 9th Congress of the Maoists held in the jungles of Central India forewarned New Delhi of intensification of the struggle in many dimensions. The strategy unfolded far earlier than anticipated as over 400 Maoists attacked a police post in Rani Bodli in Chattisgarh, killing 55 policemen and decamping with large quantity of weapons and ammunition. The Rani Bodli police outpost was held by 60 Special Police Officers (SPOs) and 23 Armed policemen. 39 SPOs and 16 armed policemen were killed by the militants. While the police claimed 15 Maoists were killed, no body was recovered. Just a few days before, a Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) Member of Parliament, Sunil Mahato was killed in Jharkhand. Mahato was in the forefront of the Nagarik Suraksha Samiti a counter Naxal vigilante movement.

The attack at Rani Bodli was a classic guerrilla operation launched in the wee hours of the morning at 2 AM on 15 March and lasted for three hours. The Maoists surrounded the outpost and hurled petrol bombs and grenades setting the camp on fire before getting away. In all probability since it was night many of the policemen would have been sleeping at the time of the attack.

The Camp was in a girls hostel but none of the inmates were hurt as Maoists are reported to have flood-lit the area to prevent casualties to the hostellers. The girls were shocked to see the carnage. Occupation of a girls' hostel complex by the police needs to be questioned whatever be the government policy. The Maoists displayed better sense and left the portion of the complex in which the girls were housed untouched.

Chattisgarh has seen highest level of Naxal violence in 2006 involving 715 incidents with 304 civilians, 84 security personnel and 74 Naxalite dead. Analysts believe that the main ire of the Maoists is the vigilante movement, Salwa Judum, which has gathered momentum in the state as a counter to Naxal control over the tribals. The Naxals see the Salwa Judum movement taking away their principal support bank. This was the second major incident in Chattisgarh during March. Earlier 8 people including four policemen of the India Reserve Battalion (Nagaland) were killed in a landmine attack on the Jagdalpur - Hyderabad road in Bastar.

The Rani Bodli incident clearly underlined lack of preparedness of the police in Chattisgarh despite claims of improved training and induction of equipment. The abject failure of intelligence both operational and tactical was evident. There were apparently no outposts deployed on the approaches to the camp which could have detected advancing Naxals and forewarned police personnel, thereby enabling an effective response. A mutual aid scheme was also found lacking.

Thus there was no response from neighbouring locations as the attackers continued with their carnage for over three hours. The nearest post is reported to be at Kotru 8 kms away, Farsagarh was 10 kms, while Kudma was only 20 km away. Rani Bodli was accessible by road from all these locations. While Maoists are reported to have blocked the roads, the obstacles could have been easily removed if the police were concerned for their comrades.

Chattisgarh administration claimed to have reviewed the strategy against Naxalite by placing greater reliance on armed police rather than SPOs. Lack of effective organisation of defences and training of police personnel however continues to be a core problem. Weapons also require upgradation and leadership has to be made more responsive.

The response of the counter militancy strategy in Chattisgarh indicated that surveillance of the Naxalite areas has been enhanced with deployment of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) on a trial basis. This was to corroborate reports of movement obtained on the ground. UAVs are not classical 24 hour surveillance assets but are essentially used after reports of movement have been received. In addition these can bring images of change in configuration of the terrain under surveillance. The information obtained has to be acted upon.

There is no evidence that this is happening in Chattisgarh. While this has been indicated as one of the core facets of government strategy to counter the Naxal problem, other facets as socio-economic development and better policing with hi-tech gadgets have not achieved effective results. The response of the Central Government has been to indicate the funds allotted, units raised and assistance provided. This may make an impressive list of 13 battalions of Central Para-Military Forces, sanctioning 4 India Reserve Battalions, 17 armoured vehicles and additional allotment of Rs 25 Crore over and above the security related funds allotted and need based helicopters. But the translation of this on the ground remains to be seen.

Operationally the police in Chattisgarh as well as in other states have been following a purely defensive strategy. This comprises on holding police outposts and limited patrolling. There is a need to shift to a limited offensive strategy comprising of vigorous patrolling, search and destroy missions in a graduated manner as the police gather more proficiency. Adequate training for this purpose is essential. This capability can be enhanced by deploying intelligence teams for seeking encounters and denying Naxalite freedom of movement. Apparently in the Indian context, it is only the Andhra Pradesh police which are carrying out such operations leading to control the Naxal menace in the state. Thus many forests in Andhra have now been cleared of Naxalite presence.

The killing of the Sunil Mahato in Jharkhand on 4th March was also attributed to the CPI (Maoist) and represents the second arm of the strategy. Mahato was targeted as he was in the fore front of the movement for establishing the Nagarik Suraksha Samiti (NSS) (Citizens Security Forum) which was seen to affect the base of Maoist support in Jharkhand. The NSS was gathering momentum in areas of East and West Singhbhum districts and had the backing of the JMM leader. The NSS leader was a Naxal target as nine terrorists were killed by members of the organisation in August 2003 at Lango. The Maoists confirmed the reason for the killing in posters pasted in the area a few days after the strike.

The Maoist 9th Congress was reportedly held in areas close to East and West Singhbhum. This Congress ran for over a month. Lack of intelligence with the state as well as the centre was obvious as the conference could not be disrupted during the entire period. The 9th Congress endorsed killing of political leaders and police officers who were impediments to the struggle. Mahato was the main driver behind the NSS. He was also seen to be taking away the lucrative contracts away from Maoists favoured contractors thereby denying the much needed funds. The operation for killing was elaborately planned. An urban guerrilla squad was employed which included a leader from Andhra Pradesh along with local supporters including a number of women Naxals.

The twin actions of killing of JMM Member of Parliament and Rani Bodli, indicates the new arms of Naxal strategy. The first week of the month saw Maoists casualties far exceeding those in Jammu and Kashmir. The same indications were seen in the middle of the month when the Rani Bodli massacre took place. The state governments in Chattisgarh and Jharkhand as well as the Centre have to finally wake up to the threat of Maoist rural and urban encirclement and evolve an effective implementable strategy to bring order to these troubled areas before we see more killing of innocents in the months ahead.

Militancy and Political Trends in North East

Rahul Bhonsle — Fri, 6 Apr 2007 05:39:46 EDT

The North East remains a complex miasma of politics and violence as militants continue to blow hot and cold. A review of activities in three states, Assam, Nagaland and Manipur in March will indicate these trends.

In Assam, ULFA activities resumed during the month with the focus on Upper Assam districts of Dhemaji, and Sivasagar. Guwahati witnessed a bomb blast on 16 March in the busy AT Road. The intensity of counter insurgency operations in Assam is evident with over 30 ULFA cadres arrested and 19 killed during the first two months of the year. The rebirth of ULFA in 2007 has been assisted by bases in Arunachal Pradesh particularly in Tirap and Changlang districts which are the two eastern most districts of the state in close proximity of Upper Assam, ULFA's stronghold and the Myanmar border. Located on the Indo Myanmar fault line, these districts provide the ULFA easy access to both the areas. The 28th Battalion, the operational wing of the outfit active in Upper Assam is located here. Apart from this other groups also have hideouts in the jungles. The Army will have to launch Operational All Clear II to neutralize the ULFA in this area.

ULFA held the State Government responsible for breakdown of the talks in an article in the organisation's news paper, Swadhinata. The ULFA also asked the government to hold a plebiscite on its demand for sovereignty. ULFA has been accused by Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor), a U.S. based strategic forecasting organisation, of contributing $6 million (Rs 26.4 Crore) to support candidates in Bangladesh backing both the Awami League as well as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. (Indian Express, 3 March 2007). While the amount may be beyond ULFA's funding capability even if provided by the ISI, there are grounds to believe that the group would have invested in leaders in Bangladesh to ensure that it receives favourable treatment in Dacca whichever party comes to power. Reports indicate that ULFA top leadership is ensconced in posh colonies in Dacca and are supported by the Director General Forces Intelligence or DGFI in Bangladesh as well as the ISI. Stratfor has also accused Paresh Barua, the ULFA commander in chief of being a, "wealthy racketeer" having businesses worth approximately $110 million across India, Bangladesh and the Gulf. While Barua is said to be under the influence of the ISI and is stridently against talks with the government, Rajkhowa is supposed to represent a softer face of the outfit.

The ULFA, in a message on the so called "Army Day" of the organisation indicated that it would not give up violence before talks with the government. It claimed that it was undertaking a freedom struggle against colonial injustice by Delhi. Prominent statements were given by Paresh Barua, the Commander in Chief and Arabinda Rajkhowa the Chairman. The issue of handing over cadres by Royal Bhutan Army to Indian authorities after Operation All Clear in December 2003 was also raised by the ULFA as the Guwahati High Court ordered the government to submit original documents of the period.

The perils of insurgency in Assam are impacting development and investment in the state. The Oil and Natural Gas Commission had proposed to upgrade the infrastructure comprising of old pipelines, crude gathering stations and other drilling machinery worth Rs 4000 Crore. The ONGC's plans have hit a road block as it is not able to muster enough security cover to operate in the remote areas.

Two rounds of talks were held between the NSCN (IM) and the central government interlocutors during the month. The first round was held on 3 March. This was followed up by a fresh round in New Delhi on 29 and 30 March 2007. The key issue discussed was increase in frequency of clashes between the two NSCN factions IM and Khaplang. The Khaplang group is reported to have kidnapped cadres of the IM which has raised the ire of the IM leaders who are likely to ask the government to clamp down on the K faction claiming that it is not likely to have the requisite power to act due to the cease fire. The Naga position on Nagolim would also be clear after the Naga leadership has had opportunity to discuss these issues with the people during the recent visit of the NSCN (IM) leadership to Nagaland.

The NSCN (IM) was also facing pubic protests over reports of kidnapping and killing of two youth, Muhenii Martin and Hriini Hubert of Senapati district, allegedly by two of its cadres. The people of Senapati district were extremely agitated and sought interrogation details of the two suspects. The NSCN (IM) confirmed that suspects were in custody but did not disclose further action.

The Congress Party returned in majority in the Assembly elections in Manipur winning 30 of the 60 seats, increasing its tally over the previous elections by 10. The complexity of issues in Manipur was evident when election results were announced at the beginning of the month. Issues of development and credibility of the candidates appeared to be upper most in the minds of voters rather than aspects such as Nagolim or repealing the AFSPA. Thus United Naga Council (UNC) which had supported integration of the Naga hill districts of Manipur with Nagolim could win only six of the eleven seats it contested. In other areas it had to face a tough contest. As indicated by A. Bimol Koijam of the Centre for Study of Developing Societies, Khantuanang Panmei who was forced to renounce participation in the elections by the NSCN (IM) contested from Tamenglong and won with a large margin. Koijam ascribes these diversities to the factor of stability. People in Manipur as per him want stability and hence have been voting for the party which is in power in the centre. Thus parties which evoked regional sentiments such as the Manipur People's Party also did not fare well during the elections.

Bangladesh - Democracy Through Emergency?

Rahul Bhonsle — Tue, 6 Mar 2007 00:14:39 EST

Elections in Bangladesh are indefinitely postponed till reforms to remove corruption, abuse of authority and strong arm tactics are effective. The first phase of reforms included a crack down on corruption to arrest and detains leaders of the Awami League as well as the Bangladesh National Party.

Former President Mr Ijazuddin while imposing Emergency in January promised to take stern measures to clamp down on violence and extremism, illegal smuggling of arms and restore favourable image of the country in the international community. These statements were ominous keeping in view wide spread allegations that Bangladesh has emerged as a hub of terrorism in the past few years.

The commitment to root out international terrorism and extremism was also highlighted. The Emergency Powers Ordinance promulgated in Bangladesh on 25 January 2007 were further amended to include sweeping anti corruption rules. These include confiscation and freezing of assets of persons whose possessions does not match their income. A person convicted under emergency rules is also disqualified from contesting elections during parliamentary polls.

The measures also threatened to auction confiscated properties of corrupt persons and the High Court was not allowed to stay verdict of a lower court in the case of corruption or release on bail of any person till his or her appeal is adjudicated. This has to be done by a higher court within 90 days of filing.

Political activity is banned and sweeping powers are granted to security forces including detention of persons without a warrant. These powers were enforced with alacrity and a series of political leaders from both sides of the political spectrum were detained and placed under preventive custody for a period of one month. These included amongst others former Cabinet Minister Nazmul Huda and Salahuddin Quader Chowdhury both considered close to former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia.

The former forest and environment minister, Tariqul Islam and Rashiduzzaman Millat were also amongst the others arrested. Mohammad Nasim a former Home Minister of the Awami League was a prominent personality from the opposition incarcerated under emergency powers. The charges brought against these as well as other politicians arrested were of corruption and anti state activity. Their bail plea was rejected by a Dhaka court thereby ensuring that the measures taken by the emergency government were given legal sanction.

The World Muslim Congregation or Bishwa Ijtema under the Tablig Jamaat was held on the banks of the Turag in Tongi near Dacca. Two million Muslims are reported to have gathered from 2 February for three days to offer prayers and listen to religious scholars. This is stated to be the second largest gathering of Muslims after the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Muslims from India, Pakistan, Middle East, the US, Russia and Europe are reported to have attended the Congregation which passed off peacefully. Though Tabligh Jamaat has been accused of terrorist violence in the West, the activities of this organization in Bangladesh are reported to be peaceful. The prayer for peace and amity during the meet was perhaps most appropriate as Bangladesh faces challenging times ahead.

Two possible trends are evident in the current situation in Bangladesh. The first is political, an attempt to totally restructure polity by inducting honest, grass roots level activists as Mohammad Yunus. The other is of restoring good governance. Both are equally significant but will face daunting resistance in the months ahead despite reordering legal mechanisms and assumption of sweeping powers.

Measures taken by the Caretaker Administration in Bangladesh appear sincere and may at least peripherally overcome many years of corruption and maladministration that has affected governance in the state. The deep roots of fundamentalism and extremism which were developed in five years of rule by the BNP with the support of fundamentalists will also be checked. Macro economic policies which are more favourable to guide lines laid down by the Bretton Woods institutions, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are expected.

These will also be supported by Western governments as many reports indicate that these measures were being initiated due to pressure from the United States and Britain. India will find the going much more favourable as the erstwhile BNP government was considered rabidly anti India and had spurned offers for economic engagement even at the cost of causing deceleration in the Bangla economy by spurning large scale investment by Indian corporations as the Tata group.

Corruption and misgovernance as well as fundamentalism in Bangladesh are so deep rooted that sustained measures will have to be taken to restore order. Determination of the current administration supported by the Army to do so seems quite evident. However sustainment is essential to genuinely restore good governance. More over a system which is based on power, pelf and bribery will take long time to redeem. Under the circumstances, the situation in Bangladesh needs to be observed with care and caution.

Support by the Army is the most redeeming feature, but permanent of Army rule will create a government structure which replicates Pakistan and is as dangerous as the past one. Experience indicates that once the uniformed community develops a stake in power, experience deems that this is not easily given up. Nevertheless behind the scenes support of the Army is essential. The aim should be to gain control over the situation as early as possible and announce definite plans for elections with responsibility for governance devolving on elected representatives of the people. Else the population which has welcomed rule from, 'behind the barracks' is likely to resent continued state of stasis, which will once again be exploited by the political parties to advantage.

Restructuring polity is likely to face even greater resistance and its success is far from guaranteed. This apparently is a Western inspired move on the lines of Iraq and Afghanistan. In the instant case, Bangladesh has deep rooted though atypical political configuration with grass roots support to both the Awami League and the Bangladesh National Party despite their low credibility. Neutralizing this will be extremely difficult. What may emerge eventually is a situation which is a replication of Pakistan.

Early elections are thus not likely as the mandate given to the interim government is to clean up the Aegean stables which will take time. However this may also seriously erode the power base of the principal political parties, resulting in a new political formation in the country, which the Western countries are presumably viewing as anti fundamentalist and able to govern the country better than the successive governments in Dacca. The political parties are likely to adopt a policy of wait and watch seeking appropriate opportunities of weakening of government resolve.

Naxalism In India - A Review

Rahul Bhonsle — Wed, 14 Feb 2007 00:16:02 EST

Counter Militancy and Militant Activities

Chattisgarh saw continued militant IED activity with a powerful explosion in Jharaghati, Narayanpur, and Bastar which killed 7 police personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and Special Armed Force (SAF) on 16 January. The police patrol party was on foot as well as on motor cycles when the Naxalite activated the IED.

In another encounter in Chattisgarh in the dense forests of Timarpur in Bastar district the CRPF tracked down and killed three Maoists while two more were killed in another encounter in the same area. The Timarpur forest area located 520 kms south of Raipur is considered to be infested with Maoists.

In an encounter, in Andhra Pradesh (AP), the AP police stumbled on a Naxal hide out in Kotapalli forest in Khammam district on the AP Chattisgarh border. Two Naxalite were killed on the spot. Khamman district has also seen a large number of surrenders of Naxalite with over 23 militants surrendering over the past few weeks. Andhra Pradesh has seen a number of counter terrorist successes over the years as the state police have gained an upper hand through effective employment of surveillance and patrolling as well as creation of a special force, the Greyhound. The Greyhound has specialized in tracking and apprehending terrorists particularly in the forested areas of the state. However the AP Chattisgarh-Maharashtra and Orissa border areas continue to be a major hide out for the Naxalite over the years.

In the counter terrorism campaign the use of Army dogs in Naxal affected areas of Chattisgarh and Jharkhand is being planned in the near future. Some dogs were inducted in the area and a team from Chattisgarh police is being trained at the Remount and Veterinary School in Meerut. The dogs will be used for sniffing explosives and weapons in Naxal areas. The proficiency of Army dogs in this task was indicated by two dogs being awarded Chief of Army Staff's commendation badges for counter terror missions in Kashmir. (Indian Express, 20 January 2007).

Large scale felling of trees to the tune of 75,000 was reported in Chattisgarh on the road from Sukma to Dornapal and Konta to Bijapur, allegedly to avoid providing cover to Naxalite who attempt to ambush vehicle convoys moving on the roads. Indiscriminate felling of trees has come up for wide spread condemnation by environmentalists and appears to be the first such reported instance as such a measure has not been taken in other insurgency infested areas including Kashmir and the North East.

The institutionalized support network of the Maoists was evident with an arms supplier, apprehended from Khammam district in AP during the month. Arms reportedly from Nepal were being smuggled in vehicles when it was apprehended in Nagpur in December. Subsequent interrogation led to the arrest of the individual from Khammam. (Indian Express report 2 January 2007). The reach of Naxalite in Madhya Pradesh was also evident with apprehension of five suspected militants from the Satnami Nagar area of Bhopal, the state capital during the month. A number of weapons parts and literature was secured from the area. These personnel were reported from Andhra and had been working in Bhopal for some time. The apprehension also led to recovery of large quantum of arms and subversive material.

Madhya Pradesh has very low level of Naxal militancy with only Balaghat, Mandla and Dindori districts identified as Naxal affected. Sidhi district bordering Uttar Pradesh and Chattisgarh is also proposed to be denoted as Naxal affected. The number of incidents in Madhya Pradesh is also reported to be of minor nature since 1990 at approximately 390. (Indian Express report 13 January 2007).

Surrender of Terrorists

Surrender of Naxals in Chattisgarh was mired in controversy during the month with the state police having announced surrender of 79 militants retracting 19 names who had minor charges which could not be proved. (Indian Express, 15 January 2007). There were allegations that the police had deliberately enhanced the numbers to claim more surrendered Naxalite. Some members of the BJP, the ruling party in the state had claimed that these were not hard core militants and were in fact workers of the state unit as well as ordinary farmers. (Hindustan Times 9 January 2006).

The wheel of Naxalism in Chattisgarh seems to have turned a full circle. While surrender is one strategy which is generally used to provide militants who are willing to give up the path of violence back into the main stream, frequently the same is used as a ploy by the security forces to add numbers to the overall campaign. There were many instances in Kashmir, when even the Army considered as the most credible counter militant force in India alleged to have manipulated surrenders and later had to retract. In the instant case, judicial custody was granted to only 43 of the 79 surrendered indicating a clear inflation of 36 by the police.

Citigroup Advisory

Citigroup, a global financial services company indicated that Maoist challenge would be one of the key factors which will determine India's growth paradigm in the coming years. The adverse impact of Maoist activities spread in 165 districts, 14 states and 40 percent of the geographic area with 35 percent of the population in India will be greatly felt in some of the key states where industrialization is taking place such as Orissa and Chattisgarh. Orissa is of particular concern as the state has over 33 percent of India's mineral reserves and large number of projects including multi nationals as Vedanta and Posco are in the line up for development in the state. Chattisgarh is also a mineral rich area with Rs 13000 Crore ($ 2.95 billon) planned in investment in the state. The movement will as per the Report impact on overall investment in the country.

Nepal: A New Dawn and Some Scepticism

Rahul Bhonsle — Tue, 6 Feb 2007 00:28:50 EST

Nepal - A New Constitution

The tensions over the draft interim constitution and forming a provisional government evident in the first fortnight of the month were rapidly diffused. The 330 member interim parliament began its inaugural session on 15 January at Kathmandu.

The composition of the parliament included 83 members from the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M). The Maoists were set to join the government after completion of process of deposition of arms by end January under United Nations supervision. The interim house will be subsequently replaced by a Constituent Assembly with elections being held in June.

The key Maoist leaders including Prachanda, Baburam Bhattari, Badal, CP Gakurel and Mohan Vaidya chose to remain out of the government with Krishna Bahadur Mahara nominated as the new leader of the Party in the House and is likely to be the Deputy Prime Minister. Maoists conceded the posts of the Speaker and the Deputy Speaker to the current incumbents based on their stellar performance in restoring the annulled house.

The speed with which the process of politicization has been undertaken in Nepal needs consideration. The House of Representatives was revived on 2 May 2006 and drafting of a new interim constitution undertaken. A comprehensive peace agreement or CPA was drafted between the Seven Party Alliance and the Maoists on 21 November. The Constitution was finalized and adopted on 15 January in the morning by the old House of Representatives and the new house met for the first time in the afternoon on the same day. Under the interim Constitution, the Prime Minister is to have dual powers of executive and head of state.

The power struggle by the Maoists which started in Rolpa in February 1996 seems to have culminated with a power sharing arrangement in less than eleven years in January 2007.

The cost of the revolution has been over 13,000 dead. Nepal's polity despite the unification denoted in acceptance of the interim constitution remains fractious. The royalists though marginalized for the time being continue to hold sway over public opinion which can raise an ugly head at some time in the future. Rumblings were already evident with the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party leaders dissatisfied due to lack of discussion on the interim constitution before the assembly.

Distribution of power within the seven party alliance and between the SPA and the communists could result in a struggle in the future. The growing discontentment amongst Maoist cadres is another issue which needs to be addressed by the central leadership.

Terai and Hill Divide

Another violent wave and civic unrest in Nepal was evident with the rise of the Madhesis. Violence between the Maoist rebels and locals belonging to the MJF broke out in some areas such as the Siraha district on 21 January. when communist rebels are said to have opened fire killing one person. This was followed by police firing in Lahan where two people were reportedly killed. This is part of the division between the people of the hills and the plains or the Terai who are complaining of discrimination.

Madhesis allege discrimination and launched an agitation which followed immediately after the interim constitution came into being. The Madhesis called for a general strike in Southern Nepal which virtually paralyzed movement in the country given that all activity from the South is undertaken through the Madhesi dominated area.

The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) has been called for negotiations by the government however the crisis is likely to continue in the days ahead. Splinter groups as the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM) led by Jwala Singh and Jay Krishna are also active for restoring parity for the people of the Terai. The Madhesis are dominant community in the Terai which imposes on the access from India to the hilly and mountainous region in the North. Thus agitation by the MJF will have a major impact on the economy of Nepal even affecting availability of daily requirements.

Law and Order

The process of surrender and registration of weapons under supervision of UN observers commence in Nepal on 17 January. The total weapons with the Maosits are reported to be between 6000 - 6500 and is likely to be completed by end January. The first registration was reported from Chitwan district location of 3 PLA Division which is reported to be the largest unit with 6000 soldiers. Reports indicate that there are five brigades under the 3 PLA.

Six other sites will also see commencement of the registration process including the 4 Division in Nawalparasi. The terms of the arms surrender agreement permit the Maoists to retain 30 arms for security of the seven main camps and 15 arms for the 21 satellite camps. (Anirban Roy, Hindustan Times, 18 January 2007).

Police stations recommenced work of enforcing law and order on 10 January which caused some crisis as the local Maoists and in some parts rebels continued to prevent functioning of the police stations. A police station in Western Nepal at Patbhar, Bardiya District came under attack by Maoists on 21 January. This is reported to be the third attack on police posts in a week and seriously undermined the authority of the central leadership. (Anirban Roy, Hindustan Times, 22 January 2007).

The JTMM is also obstructing the restoration of law and order. The local troubles may see crisis ahead which will come to a boil unless it is brought under effective control.

Economic Activity

The key to restoration of the situation in Nepal is not only parliamentary political activity but also providing an economic momentum to the country where more than 40 percent of the population is seen to live below the poverty line. While other poor states in South Asia are showing rapid signs of economic progress including Bangladesh and crisis strewn Sri Lanka, Nepal continues to languish economically.

India and Indian industrialists will play a major role in this revival. The Indian state communications services provider BSNL is already planning to lay out an fiber optic gateway to Nepal which will enhance telecommunications connectivity to the land locked state.

However the Maoists seem to be averse to an Indian role in the economic revival. The trade union lobby in Nepal led by the All Nepal Trade Union Federation (Revolutionary) is attempting to derive maximum benefit from the Maoist hold over power in the state and reports indicate that a 15 point demand has been given to Indian companies.

Thus there have been reports of Dabur Nepal a prominent herbal and medicinal drugs company announcing intention of closure of a unit in Banepa, Kavre district. The Birgunj unit of the company is already locked out in April 2006 (Anirban Roy, Hindustan Times, 4 January 2007). Some of the other companies targeted include Nepal Unilever, Pepsi and Surya as per the report.

The Rise of Al Qaeda

Rahul Bhonsle — Sun, 4 Feb 2007 00:39:36 EST

Fears of the rise of Al Qaeda are being expressed in the counter terrorism community. The US Department of Defence Intelligence Chief during his Annual briefing on terrorism indicated that the Al Qaeda had rejuvenated and was on the rise. A secure leadership in Pakistan with a strong link of operational connections with groups in Europe, North Africa and Middle East provided the back drop for this estimate. The network of the organization and the cults spawned by the Al Qaeda was evident with the head of Britain's MI5 indicating that her organization was tracking, "200 terrorist networks including 1600 suspects and 30 high priority plots" as per a report in the Christian Science Monitor. Other intelligence agencies including that of the USA would also be actively trailing many terrorist organizations across the globe, thus highlighting the spread of the terror network. There are also fears of battle hardened fighters leaving Iraq due to American pressure to fight in other areas. After the blooding in the intense conflict environment of Baghdad, these will have enhanced potency. India was witness to the potential of such an upsurge after fighters from Afghanistan trickled into Kashmir, greatly increasing the effectiveness of militancy in the area in the early 1990's. Another indication is the publication of Al Qaeda's old journal, the Sawt Al Jihad which has recommenced in Saudi Arabia.

The growth of a large number of smaller organizations raised in various parts of the World increasingly acknowledging their allegiance to the Al Qaeda is alarming. This clearly indicates the next dimension of the Al Qaeda from an organization to a movement. The institutionalized roots, status and seeming legitimacy of a movement makes it much more pervasive and dangerous. The spread of Al Qaeda is noticeable in Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Philippines, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. A number of terrorist cells have spawned in Europe as is confirmed by the British MI 5 chief which spells danger in EU countries in the months ahead.

The main Al Qaeda backed operation has occurred in Somalia. In June 2006 as reported in South Asia Security Trends July 2006 and security-risks.com, Al Qaeda got a state with a capital in Mogadishu. However the Islamic Courts Union was not able to consolidate and the Somali government which was supported by the United Nations regained control with the backing of Ethiopian forces. There is no doubt that American pressure and support enabled Ethiopia to act and facilitated eviction of the Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda escapees were targeted by the United States fighters on the Somalia-Kenyan border. However a number of fighters could have escaped as the guerrillas in Somalia rather quickly withdrew indicating that they had melted to fight another day.

Searching for Osama Bin Laden may have lost relevance. The key to defeat the Al Qaeda will have to be another movement which is a non crusade, a movement of secular globalism. The problem is non violence gets you neither fame nor a fortune.

Kashmir: Some Trends

Rahul Bhonsle — Thu, 4 Jan 2007 09:35:48 EST

Political Trends

The Chairman of the Hurriyat conference Mirwaiz Umar Farooq is on a whirl wind tour of Europe to sell the idea of autonomy. The efforts to make his voice felt however received a setback with the publication of the Draft Emma Nicholson report on behalf of the European Parliament which clearly indicates that the European Parliament does not see plebiscite as an option in Kashmir. (The full text of the report can be accessed at www.security-risks.com) The separatists led by the moderate faction of the Hurriyat Conference are using plebiscite as a negotiating chip as the ground reality is that there is no scope of their achieving independence through a plebiscite in Kashmir with mass public opinion rooting for continuance within the Indian system with greater autonomy.

Some major socio religious initiatives were taken in Kashmir by the Jamiat Ahle Hadees which held inter sectarian prayers and religious dialogue during the month. The Jamiat e Islami is also reported to be active in this effort. The aim of this initiative is to uncover the designs of militant forces which are exploiting differences within various sects and preaching trends which are against Kashmir's long standing Sufi traditions. This had created some chasms within the socio religious space which was being exploited by the terrorists. The Ahle Hadees is reportedly attempting to bridge this divide.

Militancy Trends

The year end review by the Indian Army indicated approximately, 600 terrorists had been killed, 400 apprehended and over 200 surrendered in the Valley. A reply by India's Defence Minister Mr A K Antony in the Parliament indicated that 180 Army personnel including 12 officers had been killed in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) in counter insurgency operations during the period from 01 Jan 2006 to 05 Dec 2006. While the number of terrorists killed and surrendered up to October was indicated to be 516 and 146 respectively. A dichotomy is evident in the data provided of terrorists killed in Jammu and Kashmir during the year highlighting the need for a central agency which could authenticate such critical data which can provide important inputs for management of the militancy.

Clashes broke out between the prisoners and prison guards in the high security Kot Bhalwal jail near Jammu in which a large number of terrorists including those from Pakistan have been housed. There is a need to implement a prison system such as the "Super max" in the United States and other countries as Australia, where prisoners who are dangerous and likely to cause harm are housed in facilities which restrict the scope for clashing with prison authorities or other prisoners.

Reports of meeting of leaders of the Hamas and Lashkar e Tayyeba and the Hizb ul Mujaheedin have indicated that there may be a growing nexus between Pakistan based Kashmir terrorists and the Palestinian militia. Such coagulation would be damaging in many ways. The support may be moral and economic with indications of $ 2 million being handed over to the Hamas leader during the visit. This may further vitiate the complex situation in the Middle East. The political majority achieved by Hamas in the Palestinian system could also provide a food for thought to the militants who may consider the benefits of such an option. This could provide some pointers particularly to the Hizb which has been blowing hot and cold over the years on a cease fire. On the other hand exchange of techniques of terrorist combat between both sides may have an adverse impact as the terrorists may adopts each others tactics.

Development Trends

The Prime Minister's Task Force on economic development has recommended creation of Special Investment Zone for avoiding the backwardness trap which is resulting in Kashmir not attracting enough investment. The total outlay for the state is recommended to be Rs 8,302 Crores. Other more immediate measures suggested are vacation of hotels occupied by security forces to boost up tourism after providing loans to hotel owners for renovation and increase tourist accommodation in the state by 6000 more beds by 2010 and 3000 more by 2015. A tourism vision document is also sought to be drawn up for holistic growth in the tourism sector. Development of infra structure, roads, power and telecommunications for employment generation are the other initiatives suggested. (The full text of the report can be accessed at www.security-risks.com)

The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 has been heralded as one of the primary survivors of the Indo Pakistan animosities over the years. This treaty awards the waters of Jhelum, Chenab and Indus to Pakistan and Sutlej, Beas and Ravi to India. By implication, India cannot store water for power projects on Jhelum, Chenab and Indus but dams can be constructed on running water. Pakistan has contended that the Baglihar hydro-electric power project being constructed on the Chenab in Doda district violates the Indus Water Treaty as it entails storing water by India. The project has been financed by the World Bank and hence an arbitrator, Mr Raymond Lafitte was nominated to settle the dispute. The decision by Mr Lafitte is likely to restrict the height of the dam reducing it by 1.5 meters, require construction of a parapet wall of 1.2 meters and increase the capacity of power intake by three meters to enable installation of turbines. This is likely to increase the project cost as it would entail redesigning the dam and could make it less viable. Given the criticality of the project for development of the militancy affected Doda district, the decision on its implementation is likely to be a vexed one.

Terrorism in India - An Uneven Status

Rahul Bhonsle — Wed, 3 Jan 2007 00:45:41 EST

A report by the Union Home Ministry presented in the Parliament indicated that there has been a decline in the level of violence in Jammu and Kashmir and the situation in the North East had also improved. The conditions in Naxal affected areas have however deteriorated though the number of incidents has gone down during the Year. Security-risks.com with a greater focus on human security has analysed the trend based on the number of civilian casualties in militancy affected areas. Given this parameter, the data denotes greater number of civilians killed in Naxal violence in the country at 467 as opposed to 240 in Kashmir during the year. The deaths of civilians in the North East were just two less than Kashmir at 238, thereby indicating a virtual parity between the two disturbed areas. This perhaps places Kashmir second in the order of security threats after Naxalism purely based on civilian casualties.

There was apparent dichotomy in the figures as given by the Defence Minister in a written reply in the Parliament during the same session which indicated that 180 army personnel including 12 officers had been killed till 5 December 2006 in counter insurgency operations. There is a wide variation of 49 personnel killed even if we take that all security forces personnel killed in the Valley during year were from the Army which is not correct. On the other hand one interpretation could be that 50 army personnel were killed from the period from 31 October to 5 December which again appears to be unlikely.

Apprehension of Terrorists in Delhi

The Delhi police arrested two Lashkar e Taiyyaba terrorists near Palam, Delhi with explosives. Gulzar Ganai and Mohammed Amin Hazam from Kashmir were accused of planning terror strikes. This was followed up on the last day of the year with the arrest of two terrorists planning to plant bombs on New Years Eve in the Paharganj area. The two individuals, Samiullah and Ali Mohammad were apprehended outside the New Delhi Railway station while proceeding to place the explosives concealed in toys. The individuals are said to have planned to carry out this operation in the 45 minutes halt of the Andaman Express from Jammu to Chennai at New Delhi. (Hindustan Times Report, 01 January 2007). These have been a few of the many apprehensions made by the police in and around the national capital. How far this has made the life of the people safer in the Capital is however a moot question.

A disturbing trend noticed during the month was the apprehension of three youth from Manipur who were in possession of two kgs of RDX, hand grenades and detonators from the Red Fort area of New Delhi. These were said to be Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorists who were having links with groups in Manipur. The apprehensions in turn were the outcome of interrogation of terrorists trained in Bangladesh who had been held in October 2006 in Delhi. These personnel are said to have links with terrorists in Manipur and had been in Bangladesh which was attempting to establish links with the Islamist outfit of Manipur, People's United Liberation Front ( PULF). Security Trends had indicated in its November issue of reports of Islamisation of the militancy in the North East with greater links with Bangladeshi outfits and also intervention of the DGFI and the ISI.

Institutional Measures

Large scale money laundering and hawala transactions were proposed to be checked by the Prevention of Money Laundering Act in India. The effectiveness of this Act will however be determined by the number of people apprehended and cases registered by the Enforcement Directorate which is the sole agency which can charge people. Thus so far it is said that only a dozen cases have been registered under this Act. The Mumbai police also reported its inability to register cases on some of the accused in the 7/11 Mumbai blasts case despite the provision in Section 4 of the Maharashtra Control of Organized Crime Act (MCOCA) due to requirement of detailed evidence. This is not possible in the case of money laundering which operates through a hawala network which leaves a limited trail. This was perhaps the background of greater teeth to laws for combating terrorism demanded by the Chief of the Intelligence Bureau recently.

The Government is said to have established a Multi Agency centre and a joint task force on intelligence to facilitate horizontal and vertical coordination amongst the central intelligence agencies and also between the Central and state intelligence agencies. The special branch of police is also being strengthened to increase its capability for collection and sharing of local intelligence to prevent terrorist and anti national activities. A preemptive action to burst terrorist networks has also been taken which has resulted in 246 Pak backed modules being busted during the period from 2001 to 30 September 2006.

Emphasis was also said to be on improving metropolitan policing in the cities of Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Kolkata during the year 2005-06. This was said to be a part of the plan for Modernization of State Police Forces. These were said to have been allotted Rs 22 Crore during the year with an increase to Rs 86 Crore during the year 2007-08. The funds were to be utilized for improving surveillance, crime investigation, traffic management, critical infrastructure including control rooms, digital radio trunking, communication system and PCR van networks.

Threat Analysis

Police investigations into blasts on 8 September in Malegoan have clearly indicated that the aim of the accused was to create communal disharmony and trigger riots. This has been the main aim of the terrorists operating in the Indian hinterland over the years. Having failed a number of times earlier, the design this time may be to target a popular political leader as Sonia Gandhi or Atal Bihari Vajpayee to invite wide spread retribution by the masses. This was perhaps the background of the alert sounded for a possible attempt on the life of Mrs Sonia Gandhi during the month. A review of the threat based on such a premise may be necessary for the consequences of such an attack would be extremely grave, affecting communal harmony within the country as well as Indo Pakistan relations. Given this proposition, this will be all the more attractive for the terrorists given that post 7/11 and Malegaon strikes they have lost their sting in India.